cocos228
0x8e5c0cc55cda93d6cae14becb3b738a44dcaa68a
- Realised P&L
- $524.1k
- Volume
- $7.79M
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $200.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$468.0kat 0.486Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$47.7kat 0.824Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$32.0kat 0.813Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$21.3kat 0.177Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$14.3kat 0.819US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 09:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $243.31 |
| 09-15 17:30 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.75 | $13.0k |
| 09-15 16:50 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.55 | $3.5k |
| 08-21 15:02 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1509999993 | $163.29 |
| 06-15 06:40 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.849 | $5.4k |
| 06-02 09:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.00 |
| 05-24 21:00 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.7099999997 | $541.10 |
| 05-23 14:06 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $3.0k |
| 05-20 17:22 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.6899999965 | $195.90 |
| 05-20 15:32 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? | SELL | 0.967 | $184.70 |
| 05-19 07:14 | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY | 0.8799999997 | $139.27 |
| 05-18 21:27 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $165.12 |
| 05-18 21:27 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? | SELL | 0.97 | $1.0k |
| 05-18 11:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.6899999745 | $21.40 |
| 05-17 13:09 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.6k |