0x.4a514
0x8c2aee57a3602fbda1027b4165f73c08845638d0
- Realised P&L
- $161.61
- Volume
- $17.0k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.905 | $508.43 | +$8.43 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No | 0.833 | 0.805 | $483.48 | −$16.52 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No | 0.933 | 0.465 | $249.21 | −$250.79 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31? · No | 0.906 | 0.956 | $210.90 | +$10.90 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.573 | $124.87 | −$75.13 |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? · Yes | 0.834 | 0.052 | $7.48 | −$112.52 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.85at 0.865Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
- +$33.75at 0.836Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
- +$23.05at 0.852Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$21.41at 0.824Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$18.25at 0.847Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 22:20 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.8480838631 | $510.89 |
| 09-11 00:41 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $0.26 |
| 08-28 15:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.9576905053 | $203.55 |
| 08-28 13:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9568967683 | $1.0k |
| 08-24 14:50 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9772650743 | $567.91 |
| 08-22 09:41 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9000842503 | $534.17 |
| 08-13 05:08 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31? | BUY | 0.9061263097 | $200.00 |
| 08-13 05:00 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.832507433 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 17:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $1000.00 |
| 08-12 17:07 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 17:00 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9409573988 | $200.00 |
| 08-12 14:56 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.9329654403 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 11:45 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299999988 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 11:18 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.9177541335 | $200.00 |
| 08-12 10:45 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.9409148048 | $200.00 |