0xAbdf3719f87EAb0d50D1910C69b23c694AA6cE74-1768651514426
0x897604fee28b95a3a546cd0ebb95f79737642a26
- Realised P&L
- $7.52
- Volume
- $192.06
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $53.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.518 | 0.710 | $16.98 | +$4.58 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.745 | $14.90 | −$0.90 |
| Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.364 | $10.93 | +$1.96 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.204 | $8.18 | −$1.62 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.055 | $2.20 | −$4.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.27at 0.547Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
- +$3.64at 0.583Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$-0.39at 0.455Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 11:11 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.4599999387 | $1.80 |
| 09-09 07:51 | Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.5729999665 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 07:50 | Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.426 | $4.26 |
| 09-08 20:43 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 09-08 20:41 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 09-08 20:09 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.245 | $9.80 |
| 09-08 19:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 09-08 18:43 | Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.445 | $4.45 |
| 09-08 18:37 | Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | BUY | 0.299 | $8.97 |
| 09-08 18:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 09-08 18:32 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 09-08 18:31 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.20 |