LeopoldArschenbrenner
0x867149d900abf49270d9194900efc5e13e3ad4b7
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $614.0k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $62.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.750Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.1kat 0.791Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$865.45at 0.218Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
- +$801.13at 0.830Netanyahu out by June 30?
- +$789.85at 0.850Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 02:54 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.071 | $113.35 |
| 09-05 23:43 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.086 | $702.69 |
| 08-20 15:09 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.137 | $2.1k |
| 08-14 02:36 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.155 | $73.00 |
| 07-30 12:17 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.2640348347 | $5.6k |
| 07-27 12:23 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1952815389 | $2.2k |
| 07-26 03:08 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.197 | $201.40 |
| 07-13 21:41 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.5959694396 | $1.8k |
| 07-11 14:38 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.104 | $683.00 |
| 06-23 17:04 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.211 | $69.33 |
| 06-04 20:27 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.54 | $11.5k |
| 06-04 20:26 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.9k |
| 06-03 00:04 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.1k |
| 06-02 21:58 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.9742197424 | $5.4k |
| 06-02 19:35 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.151 | $14.79 |