PolyBot

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Traders

LeopoldArschenbrenner

0x867149d900abf49270d9194900efc5e13e3ad4b7

Realised P&L
$-2.0k
Volume
$614.0k
Markets traded
51
Open portfolio
$62.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded51
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample33 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 02:54Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.071$113.35
09-05 23:43Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.086$702.69
08-20 15:09Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.137$2.1k
08-14 02:36Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.155$73.00
07-30 12:17Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?BUY0.2640348347$5.6k
07-27 12:23Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.1952815389$2.2k
07-26 03:08Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.197$201.40
07-13 21:41Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.5959694396$1.8k
07-11 14:38Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.104$683.00
06-23 17:04Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.211$69.33
06-04 20:27Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.54$11.5k
06-04 20:26Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.998$9.9k
06-03 00:04Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.89$1.1k
06-02 21:58Netanyahu out by June 30?SELL0.9742197424$5.4k
06-02 19:35Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.151$14.79