0x864796112505fa75Ef02f302759c3211629Bd870-1759443649272
0x864796112505fa75ef02f302759c3211629bd870
- Realised P&L
- $681.28
- Volume
- $193.6k
- Markets traded
- 193
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded193
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$239.08at 0.892Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?
- +$147.57at 0.027Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$94.78at 0.684Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
- +$81.03at 0.712Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$75.15at 0.050Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 15:15 | Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | BUY | 0.8389333333 | $503.36 |
| 10-04 12:44 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.52 | $223.95 |
| 09-28 11:59 | Will Flávio Roscoe win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.97 |
| 09-11 12:01 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.546 | $65.52 |
| 08-31 11:05 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.5583538654 | $290.34 |
| 08-28 15:03 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $9.48 |
| 08-27 20:54 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.66 | $33.93 |
| 08-26 20:19 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.51 | $21.25 |
| 08-24 15:31 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.034 | $68.17 |
| 08-20 21:23 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | SELL | 0.88 | $263.98 |
| 08-17 20:55 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $6.88 |
| 08-17 20:50 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0352668445 | $16.93 |
| 08-12 11:41 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.077 | $95.08 |
| 08-10 20:56 | Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.05 |
| 08-10 20:56 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.27 |