57284910
0x856ac2b10fb37c9b74e18f16da2acedfa60f4ea2
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $345.6k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $145.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$997.64at 0.975Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$444.68at 0.921Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
- +$414.73at 0.911Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?
- +$210.97at 0.970Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$147.00at 0.706Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 16:33 | Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $199.51 |
| 10-20 16:32 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.992 | $2.5k |
| 10-20 16:32 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.977 | $2.4k |
| 10-20 05:54 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.56 |
| 10-19 21:52 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000? | BUY | 0.348476 | $17.42 |
| 10-19 19:42 | Will there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026? | BUY | 0.094 | $5.44 |
| 10-19 19:08 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,200,000 and 3,400,000? | BUY | 0.2 | $8.00 |
| 10-19 18:26 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 10-19 18:21 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $205.00 |
| 10-19 18:08 | Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next? | BUY | 0.38 | $11.86 |
| 10-19 18:05 | Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 10-19 18:04 | Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.9896484 | $98.96 |
| 10-19 18:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.991 | $1.5k |
| 10-19 18:02 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9759776482 | $401.71 |
| 10-19 18:01 | U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.974 | $29.22 |