PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

57284910

0x856ac2b10fb37c9b74e18f16da2acedfa60f4ea2

Realised P&L
$2.8k
Volume
$345.6k
Markets traded
69
Open portfolio
$145.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded69
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample24 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9670.977$39.0k+$386.30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? · No0.9890.995$24.7k+$133.96
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes0.9850.991$17.4k+$95.69
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9740.974$9.7k−$4.95
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · No0.9920.992$8.9k−$2.99
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9620.955$5.6k−$46.88
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No0.9630.982$5.5k+$102.60
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No0.9730.985$5.4k+$63.17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9580.978$4.4k+$87.75
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.9610.970$4.0k+$38.34
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.9770.973$3.0k−$14.06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8400.855$2.1k+$37.52
OPEC dissolves in 2026? · No0.9680.984$2.1k+$34.00
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · No0.9650.966$1.5k+$1.74
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? · No0.9400.940$1.4k+$0.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-20 16:33Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?BUY0.978$199.51
10-20 16:322026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseBUY0.992$2.5k
10-20 16:32Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?BUY0.977$2.4k
10-20 05:54France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?SELL0.83$4.56
10-19 21:52Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?BUY0.348476$17.42
10-19 19:42Will there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?BUY0.094$5.44
10-19 19:08Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,200,000 and 3,400,000?BUY0.2$8.00
10-19 18:26France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?SELL0.8$160.00
10-19 18:21France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?BUY0.82$205.00
10-19 18:08Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?BUY0.38$11.86
10-19 18:05Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?BUY0.99$4.95
10-19 18:04Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?BUY0.9896484$98.96
10-19 18:032026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseBUY0.991$1.5k
10-19 18:02Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.9759776482$401.71
10-19 18:01U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?BUY0.974$29.22