gooseknuckle
0x833b72313c9af8086118ecf9c67d763a3fc4d4bb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $161.7k
- Markets traded
- 826
- Open portfolio
- $443.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded826
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$168.87at 0.629US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$149.17at 0.607US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$101.11at 0.090US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$96.53at 0.451Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?
- +$80.10at 0.866Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:04 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $25.28 |
| 10-31 20:31 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.6119999955 | $50.00 |
| 10-31 20:25 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $50.65 |
| 10-31 20:24 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $17.06 |
| 10-30 20:17 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $139.30 |
| 10-26 22:53 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.65 | $51.58 |
| 10-26 22:53 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $68.23 |
| 10-25 22:03 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6199999715 | $10.00 |
| 10-23 14:51 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.766 | $43.55 |
| 10-19 02:00 | Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.1372845097 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 02:00 | Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.3279999879 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 02:00 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.3839999803 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 14:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7629999952 | $30.00 |
| 10-16 14:36 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.879782964 | $55.98 |
| 10-16 00:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7959999963 | $40.00 |