curious.pangolin
0x82879ac272e405d6560bcb8ec5caf4920d838244
- Realised P&L
- $-3.18
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $37.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.007 | $7.45 | +$2.38 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.715 | 0.745 | $7.45 | +$0.30 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.970 | $4.85 | +$0.02 |
| Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.895 | $4.47 | +$0.57 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.700 | 0.817 | $4.08 | +$0.58 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.153 | $3.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Warren Pickering be the next Premier of Victoria? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.030 | $2.74 | −$2.26 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.102 | $1.52 | −$0.01 |
| Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.033 | $1.14 | −$1.89 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.563 | 0.620 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.20at 0.550Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?
- +$0.20at 0.642Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.07at 0.925Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- +$0.06at 0.940Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
- +$0.03at 0.877Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 04:01 | Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? | SELL | 0.967 | $1.52 |
| 10-29 03:51 | Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria? | SELL | 0.901 | $1.03 |
| 10-28 02:35 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.48 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:49 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 04:58 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.772 | $1.21 |
| 10-22 04:15 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5629999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:08 | Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria? | BUY | 0.0050396325 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 04:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | SELL | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 10-09 03:28 | Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 10-08 00:29 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1509999975 | $3.00 |
| 10-07 02:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.939999812 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:38 | Will Warren Pickering be the next Premier of Victoria? | BUY | 0.0556671106 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 07:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6329999323 | $1.00 |