Donny.T
0x8190816855b676a5efd8c5b344135a72337bb247
- Realised P&L
- $30.8k
- Volume
- $2.95M
- Markets traded
- 807
- Open portfolio
- $157.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded807
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.554Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.931Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$1.4kat 0.981Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.986Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.972Trump out as President by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 22:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? | SELL | 0.996 | $39.94 |
| 09-12 22:12 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $938.25 |
| 09-12 15:58 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.322 | $0.32 |
| 09-12 15:54 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 09-09 19:49 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.78 | $43.39 |
| 09-06 15:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $41.45 |
| 09-04 23:20 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $29.64 |
| 09-04 15:22 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $329.56 |
| 09-04 03:13 | Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 09-04 03:13 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 09-04 03:12 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $496.56 |
| 09-03 14:54 | Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | SELL | 0.6705555556 | $12.07 |
| 09-02 23:42 | Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? | SELL | 0.991 | $493.31 |
| 09-02 23:41 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $207.90 |
| 08-29 22:24 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.968 | $387.20 |