PolyBot

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Traders

Donny.T

0x8190816855b676a5efd8c5b344135a72337bb247

Realised P&L
$28.0k
Volume
$3.40M
Markets traded
904
Open portfolio
$162.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded904
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No0.8990.960$47.6k+$3.0k
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.9210.955$13.8k+$494.15
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8890.955$11.2k+$770.53
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.9300.986$9.5k+$535.51
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.9140.945$8.9k+$289.05
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8870.945$8.5k+$518.83
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.9150.945$8.0k+$252.55
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9290.949$6.1k+$126.94
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9170.945$5.1k+$149.17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8200.825$4.7k+$25.76
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? · No0.9370.962$4.4k+$114.59
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31? · No0.9300.969$4.0k+$154.96
Yoon out of custody before 2027? · No0.9250.972$3.7k+$177.37
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9530.988$3.5k+$121.37
Plague case in US by December 31? · No0.9270.955$3.0k+$86.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 17:16Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.95$475.00
11-01 11:06Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.9365454545$30.91
11-01 10:07Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2027?BUY0.7949627175$134.33
11-01 09:04Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.9244189359$44.13
11-01 09:00Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.642$6.42
10-31 17:49Plague case in US by December 31?BUY0.95$374.29
10-30 13:22Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?SELL0.992021926$226.22
10-29 21:30Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?SELL0.75$3.75
10-29 21:24Yoon out of custody before 2027?SELL0.975$709.53
10-29 21:20Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?BUY0.78$3.90
10-29 21:16Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.89$178.00
10-29 17:14Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?SELL0.006$0.01
10-28 21:54Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?SELL0.9$369.00
10-28 14:37Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.68$3.40
10-28 14:10Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?SELL0.97$1.2k