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Traders

LuckyOctopus

0x7f4801e36f4d0681c06d0a663ed8812e1df0ec6e

Realised P&L
$47.95
Volume
$4.3k
Markets traded
171
Open portfolio
$450.38

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded171
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration8.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No0.5260.925$96.65+$41.65
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.4100.805$58.91+$28.91
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.6980.795$48.98+$5.98
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6700.765$43.35+$5.35
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.6490.715$31.29+$2.87
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.6980.876$25.11+$5.11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No0.6730.835$24.81+$4.81
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.4900.855$17.45+$7.45
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.6890.545$15.83−$4.17
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.6700.885$13.21+$3.21
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · No0.7020.845$12.03+$2.03
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.7000.805$11.27+$1.47
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? · No0.8000.795$9.94−$0.06
Will Trump and Putin not meet? · No0.7900.785$9.94−$0.06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.6000.795$5.91+$1.45

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 06:15Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.8$3.00
10-01 06:15Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.599999976$5.00
10-01 06:13Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?BUY0.6799999728$5.00
10-01 06:11US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.729999954$10.00
10-01 06:10Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?BUY0.8799999859$5.00
10-01 05:59Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?BUY0.8$10.00
10-01 05:58Will Trump and Putin not meet?BUY0.7899999905$10.00
09-29 16:36Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?BUY0.6999999854$4.80
09-29 16:35Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?BUY0.699999916$5.00
09-29 12:03Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?BUY0.5192307493$5.00
09-29 12:01Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?BUY0.7899999905$5.00
09-29 11:57Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?BUY0.6899999821$5.00
09-29 11:54Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.7099999918$20.00
09-29 11:54Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.7899999968$20.00
09-29 11:51Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?SELL0.998$65.41
Trader LuckyOctopus · PolyBot Pro