th0rgal
0x7c7a328a2bd01af54a1b793992a25737bd00621e
- Realised P&L
- $-44.59
- Volume
- $16.7k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $156.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.00at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$61.50at 0.590US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$56.00at 0.810US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$45.21at 0.300US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$30.00at 0.700Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | BUY | 0.46 | $6.73 |
| 08-16 20:45 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.037 | $3.70 |
| 08-15 17:42 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.50 |
| 08-15 11:22 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.144 | $7.20 |
| 04-21 18:45 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | BUY | 0.07 | $21.00 |
| 03-06 09:00 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.038 | $19.00 |
| 03-06 08:16 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $88.50 |
| 03-06 08:14 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 03-06 08:13 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $9.60 |
| 03-06 08:10 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | BUY | 0.7 | $70.00 |
| 07-07 04:48 | Biden drops out of presidential race? | BUY | 0.42 | $112.56 |