davidceto
0x7bdd1388fa93df20ddcfdb7535d195596d6d5fb3
- Realised P&L
- $-668.62
- Volume
- $58.0k
- Markets traded
- 432
- Open portfolio
- $285.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded432
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.46at 0.630Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
- +$107.16at 0.571Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
- +$85.95at 0.141Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$79.59at 0.150Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?
- +$69.49at 0.117Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 20:59 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.173 | $10.03 |
| 09-25 07:45 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.27 | $6.48 |
| 09-25 01:51 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | SELL | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 09-24 23:43 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2299014286 | $6.44 |
| 09-24 23:43 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.27 | $6.75 |
| 09-24 07:42 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 09-23 21:37 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.258 | $14.96 |
| 09-23 21:28 | Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | BUY | 0.865 | $6.05 |
| 09-23 20:42 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $6.40 |
| 09-23 20:13 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $10.25 |
| 09-23 12:04 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 09-23 04:59 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $20.50 |
| 09-21 21:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $8.00 |
| 09-18 04:59 | Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.13 |
| 09-18 04:57 | Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m? | BUY | 0.7099284 | $17.75 |