0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aE
0x77266604e63f5caf08d19caebae0c563ce064aee
- Realised P&L
- $32.7k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 239
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded239
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.1kat 0.027Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?
- +$6.2kat 0.037Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?
- +$3.8kat 0.620Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$2.7kat 0.810Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$2.6kat 0.100Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 18:29 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.13 | $10.73 |
| 07-29 18:29 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.133 | $10.81 |
| 07-29 18:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $999.00 |
| 07-24 23:56 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.2k |
| 07-24 23:38 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.3439949753 | $2.1k |
| 07-18 15:45 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $510.07 |
| 07-16 20:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.7k |
| 07-16 17:33 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.031 | $112.67 |
| 07-16 17:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.1k |
| 07-12 07:48 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $501.24 |
| 07-12 05:45 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $317.21 |
| 07-04 15:17 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.9 | $2.2k |
| 07-01 06:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.81 | $558.79 |
| 06-30 02:14 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.25 | $250.00 |
| 06-29 19:25 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.0k |