vk7
0x74db2780445d9b7b10e8a650db1b94f8e53c4ca5
- Realised P&L
- $-101.6k
- Volume
- $1.28M
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $18.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.7kat 0.278Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$9.9kat 0.338Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$7.4kat 0.260Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$5.8kat 0.658Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$5.4kat 0.501Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 18:55 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4976591556 | $2.2k |
| 07-27 10:50 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $837.50 |
| 07-26 19:09 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.57 | $3.4k |
| 07-26 19:06 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4591691536 | $961.61 |
| 07-26 19:05 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.54 |
| 07-26 19:05 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1059171598 | $53.70 |
| 03-08 21:52 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.0670262709 | $2.7k |
| 03-08 21:40 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | BUY | 0.23098256 | $3.5k |
| 03-08 21:39 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | BUY | 0.1070215353 | $5.6k |
| 03-08 21:18 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.997 | $16.9k |
| 03-07 20:22 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $20.96 |
| 03-07 20:16 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.56 | $21.92 |
| 03-07 20:15 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $233.73 |
| 03-07 20:11 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.505642065 | $1.0k |
| 03-07 20:10 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.112 | $133.60 |