AMATEUR
0x72863e1e35e70a7760acb64a150d819b1e59559e
- Realised P&L
- $963.62
- Volume
- $42.0k
- Markets traded
- 238
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded238
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$593.36at 0.265Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$96.48at 0.270Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
- +$80.26at 0.744Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
- +$67.31at 0.368Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
- +$57.29at 0.716Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 04:13 | Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0557496855 | $8.86 |
| 07-24 04:12 | Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.054 | $2.33 |
| 07-24 04:10 | Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.08 | $25.00 |
| 07-23 16:17 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | SELL | 0.2612984 | $26.13 |
| 07-13 12:52 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.2276931818 | $100.18 |
| 07-09 12:50 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 07-08 13:43 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.971 | $24.27 |
| 07-06 14:06 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 07-06 14:05 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $10.80 |
| 07-06 13:50 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.40 |
| 07-06 13:50 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 07-05 04:11 | Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 07-02 13:34 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 07-02 13:32 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.10 |
| 07-01 14:30 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |