Rafael88
0x720bd69011aa5a9ef7846e88648218a7b33d37f6
- Realised P&L
- $45.5k
- Volume
- $1.89M
- Markets traded
- 209
- Open portfolio
- $61.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded209
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.5kat 0.129Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$19.4kat 0.163Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$2.4kat 0.606US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.807US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.281Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $464.88 |
| 11-01 17:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9667922686 | $600.00 |
| 11-01 17:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1000.00 |
| 11-01 17:10 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.979 | $2.1k |
| 11-01 14:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.68 |
| 10-31 23:43 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.9354304646 | $2.0k |
| 10-31 23:43 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8597661436 | $1000.00 |
| 10-31 23:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9499999995 | $1.7k |
| 10-31 17:29 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | BUY | 0.74 | $279.15 |
| 10-31 17:28 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.936 | $36.13 |
| 10-31 17:26 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.973 | $594.61 |
| 10-31 17:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | BUY | 0.7251509404 | $359.36 |
| 10-31 17:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.9071470556 | $5.4k |
| 10-31 17:11 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8597565303 | $1.0k |
| 10-31 17:11 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.973 | $1.0k |