PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Rafael88

0x720bd69011aa5a9ef7846e88648218a7b33d37f6

Realised P&L
$45.5k
Volume
$1.89M
Markets traded
209
Open portfolio
$61.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded209
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · No0.9070.905$16.1k−$44.37
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8390.875$10.1k+$419.52
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8620.863$8.0k+$6.36
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9690.977$5.9k+$42.35
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No0.9440.965$2.8k+$60.67
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No0.6380.579$2.4k−$252.49
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? · No0.7640.755$2.3k−$27.72
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.8420.865$2.1k+$54.51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes0.9350.962$2.1k+$56.81
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9500.955$1.7k+$8.78
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.7890.841$1.2k+$73.44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? · No0.9440.967$1.2k+$29.03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · No0.7330.725$1.1k−$12.04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8300.825$980.10−$5.94
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? · No0.7320.725$723.64−$7.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 17:11US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?BUY0.8599999998$464.88
11-01 17:11US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?BUY0.9667922686$600.00
11-01 17:11US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.74$1000.00
11-01 17:10Xi Jinping out before 2027?SELL0.979$2.1k
11-01 14:02Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUY0.68$2.68
10-31 23:43US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?BUY0.9354304646$2.0k
10-31 23:43Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.8597661436$1000.00
10-31 23:42Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.9499999995$1.7k
10-31 17:29Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?BUY0.74$279.15
10-31 17:28US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?BUY0.936$36.13
10-31 17:26Xi Jinping out before 2027?SELL0.973$594.61
10-31 17:19Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?BUY0.7251509404$359.36
10-31 17:18Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?SELL0.9071470556$5.4k
10-31 17:11Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.8597565303$1.0k
10-31 17:11Xi Jinping out before 2027?SELL0.973$1.0k