Whoisurdaddy
0x71686f4bfbe0e5a1663340b2067f3f6715dde422
- Realised P&L
- $-108.69
- Volume
- $69.2k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $48.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.175 | $20.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.253 | 0.180 | $10.80 | −$4.40 |
| Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.083 | $8.25 | −$2.75 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.021 | $7.92 | −$32.08 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.080 | $1.36 | −$3.57 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.96 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.49 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$211.20at 0.072Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$183.23at 0.254Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
- +$176.09at 0.151MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$105.00at 0.160Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?
- +$42.09at 0.327Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 11:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $149.74 |
| 09-02 11:24 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $4.00 |
| 09-02 11:19 | Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0149792333 | $4.49 |
| 09-02 11:19 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.18 |
| 07-24 02:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | BUY | 0.156 | $17.26 |
| 07-18 19:05 | Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.097 | $1.74 |
| 07-18 19:04 | Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.76 |
| 07-08 09:31 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.031 | $0.77 |
| 07-08 09:30 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.185 | $11.86 |
| 07-08 09:02 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $7.50 |
| 07-08 08:59 | Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.60 |
| 07-02 12:24 | Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.06 |
| 07-02 12:24 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 06-27 01:45 | Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 01:45 | Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |