pol5lon
0x6fe7149b17aad7f741b6921818fc1f464290dbee
- Realised P&L
- $-68.69
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 377
- Open portfolio
- $35.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded377
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.00at 0.120Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026?
- +$11.82at 0.120Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$10.97at 0.130Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?
- +$9.80at 0.290Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.13at 0.290Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 20:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 08-26 22:18 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $1.68 |
| 08-26 18:39 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.98 |
| 08-25 00:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.90 |
| 08-24 12:52 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.89 |
| 08-22 04:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | SELL | 0.488 | $2.44 |
| 08-19 21:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | SELL | 0.552 | $2.76 |
| 08-18 13:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 08-13 04:56 | Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19? | SELL | 0.992 | $5.45 |
| 08-13 04:54 | Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.61 |
| 08-12 15:15 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.19 |
| 08-12 15:15 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.43 | $3.65 |
| 08-10 12:12 | Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship? | SELL | 0.3983333333 | $2.39 |
| 08-10 12:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 08-05 05:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $2.59 |