marketmover-344
0x6f6465996df846d5a8954df1159a72f5e78732b3
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $303.5k
- Markets traded
- 260
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded260
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.440Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
- +$260.31at 0.026Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?
- +$257.40at 0.226Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?
- +$227.20at 0.604Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?
- +$210.79at 0.878Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 23:58 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0936914393 | $9.96 |
| 07-14 23:44 | Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.87 | $52.20 |
| 07-13 22:33 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.895 | $22.38 |
| 07-13 22:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $648.00 |
| 07-13 22:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $162.00 |
| 07-09 21:53 | Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco? | BUY | 0.66 | $165.00 |
| 07-07 19:31 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.80 |
| 07-07 19:28 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.291 | $24.30 |
| 07-03 20:49 | Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.75 | $375.00 |
| 06-23 23:08 | Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.67 | $15.41 |
| 06-22 22:19 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.83 |
| 06-16 23:35 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.9489047619 | $39.85 |
| 06-16 23:31 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $201.66 |
| 06-15 21:03 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $151.71 |
| 06-08 22:39 | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |