shitok
0x6e85b0ce1cbc580806e09c4ef9756a66a8b61f81
- Realised P&L
- $-370.79
- Volume
- $1.69M
- Markets traded
- 208
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded208
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.335Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$1.7kat 0.170Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$1.5kat 0.165Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$1.4kat 0.097Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
- +$1.0kat 0.490Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:37 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $96.99 |
| 09-13 11:36 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $132.78 |
| 09-13 11:32 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $445.07 |
| 09-13 11:31 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $181.93 |
| 09-13 11:30 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.57 | $439.00 |
| 09-13 11:28 | Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.66 | $660.00 |
| 09-11 07:25 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.06 | $363.00 |
| 08-30 14:58 | Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.16 | $43.20 |
| 08-22 11:34 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-22? | BUY | 0.6 | $1000.00 |
| 08-21 12:07 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.3852305 | $770.46 |
| 08-10 07:50 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $910.00 |
| 08-03 07:53 | Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $972.55 |
| 07-26 14:39 | Will Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? | BUY | 0.38 | $380.00 |
| 07-26 14:33 | Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? | BUY | 0.62 | $580.32 |
| 07-19 21:44 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | SELL | 0.9 | $75.59 |