0x6e4bc6bb3f39912b5521f381e45d116e16be5aa1
0x6e4bc6bb3f39912b5521f381e45d116e16be5aa1
- Realised P&L
- $-78.79
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $138.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)19.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.618 | 0.420 | $70.85 | −$33.45 |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.442 | 0.580 | $44.81 | +$10.69 |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.836 | 0.815 | $17.06 | −$0.45 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? · No | 0.900 | 0.755 | $5.87 | −$1.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.75at 0.742Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$10.08at 0.568Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?
- +$0.73at 0.768Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
- +$0.58at 0.677Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
- +$0.47at 0.869Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 09:23 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.68 | $5.95 |
| 10-30 09:23 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $14.13 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.52 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.74 | $1.82 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $2.84 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.39 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.906 | $3.34 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.79 | $2.97 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.892 | $3.48 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.84 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.51 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.01 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $3.08 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.866 | $6.13 |
| 10-30 07:27 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | SELL | 0.959 | $6.85 |