kostafun
0x6d50d1402b75af546273297aa6dd2904bd211f5d
- Realised P&L
- $-382.18
- Volume
- $113.5k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $852.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? · Yes | 0.769 | 0.500 | $265.49 | −$142.84 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.155 | $263.18 | −$74.94 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.369 | 0.235 | $140.88 | −$80.47 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.065 | $92.30 | −$130.10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.065 | $59.15 | −$36.75 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No | 0.312 | 0.185 | $15.79 | −$10.82 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.036 | $7.20 | −$4.80 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.009 | $3.28 | −$3.07 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.009 | $2.85 | −$9.15 |
| Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.115 | $1.77 | +$0.23 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $0.91 | −$2.13 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4PM ET · Up | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$784.01at 0.044Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$432.45at 0.240Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
- +$279.79at 0.587US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$190.80at 0.038Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$176.62at 0.049Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 18:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $22.40 |
| 09-10 18:02 | Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? | SELL | 0.63 | $12.66 |
| 09-10 18:02 | Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? | SELL | 0.66 | $8.34 |
| 08-05 19:31 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 23:00 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 08-01 22:56 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 08-01 22:51 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 07-31 03:18 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11PM ET | SELL | 0.6182 | $30.91 |
| 07-31 03:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11PM ET | BUY | 0.359 | $17.95 |
| 07-30 20:57 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4PM ET | BUY | 0.0429358576 | $1.52 |
| 07-30 12:26 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.0191388 | $1.91 |
| 07-30 06:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 03:37 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July? | SELL | 0.875 | $26.24 |
| 07-29 19:26 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.06 | $1.26 |
| 07-29 18:24 | OPEC dissolves in 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.00 |