alexhstv
0x6b3bbee7686959bc1b59d65b6c2d5cc0e188cf11
- Realised P&L
- $-31.94
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $57.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · No | 0.193 | 0.230 | $35.22 | +$5.65 |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.041 | $13.33 | −$6.67 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.033 | $8.55 | −$1.45 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lululemon say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call? · No | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-9.46at 0.104Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 11:46 | Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.1931190324 | $29.57 |
| 09-04 11:43 | Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.0615194245 | $20.00 |
| 09-04 11:39 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0049548012 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 06:07 | Will Lululemon say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 21:46 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0379999965 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 21:42 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0097656155 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 21:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 19:57 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 09-03 19:50 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |