0x6abe7704bd2c9812E1f74A6B01a61AC7368ED6a5-1744064218199
0x6abe7704bd2c9812e1f74a6b01a61ac7368ed6a5
- Realised P&L
- $-4.4k
- Volume
- $975.5k
- Markets traded
- 803
- Open portfolio
- $24.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded803
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.6kat 0.430Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
- +$4.8kat 0.667US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$4.3kat 0.528Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
- +$2.1kat 0.459Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
- +$2.0kat 0.868US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 19:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.962 | $756.77 |
| 08-04 17:08 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $47.71 |
| 08-04 17:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.7k |
| 08-04 17:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.3k |
| 08-02 16:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.4931199791 | $3.0k |
| 08-02 04:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.4467054333 | $2.8k |
| 08-01 03:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 08-01 03:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $450.00 |
| 08-01 03:33 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.9447590602 | $1.0k |
| 08-01 03:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $48.00 |
| 08-01 03:00 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.9759639103 | $77.07 |
| 08-01 02:59 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.946 | $72.94 |
| 08-01 02:59 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $195.15 |
| 08-01 02:59 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | SELL | 0.9585079688 | $150.96 |
| 08-01 02:56 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.9473232054 | $722.41 |