paranoun
0x698852b18f872c5e0ab2c464c2e00b39d1f0f556
- Realised P&L
- $-498.34
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $175.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.160 | $64.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.408 | 0.097 | $33.68 | −$108.71 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.050 | $23.07 | −$52.59 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.055 | $22.55 | −$47.15 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.030 | $12.20 | −$35.80 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.040 | $8.00 | −$20.00 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.035 | $7.10 | −$22.90 |
| Human moon landing in 2026? · No | 0.943 | 0.991 | $5.25 | +$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.00at 0.230Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$51.43at 0.280Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$50.39at 0.851Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$23.95at 0.737Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
- +$22.61at 0.818Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:45 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | BUY | 0.164 | $8.35 |
| 10-09 09:45 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.408 | $142.39 |
| 09-22 14:28 | Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $19.65 |
| 09-22 14:20 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $124.00 |
| 09-16 13:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $10.80 |
| 09-11 08:09 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.81 | $100.44 |
| 05-24 09:28 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.9779108182 | $107.57 |
| 05-24 07:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.8460052857 | $177.66 |
| 05-16 09:58 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.00 |
| 05-16 09:52 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $48.00 |
| 05-16 09:49 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $51.00 |
| 05-16 09:43 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $103.40 |
| 05-16 09:22 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $18.70 |
| 05-11 13:23 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 05-11 13:18 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $21.00 |