PolyBot

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Traders

paranoun

0x698852b18f872c5e0ab2c464c2e00b39d1f0f556

Realised P&L
$-498.34
Volume
$6.4k
Markets traded
39
Open portfolio
$175.85

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded39
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample31 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes0.3100.160$64.00−$60.00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes0.4080.097$33.68−$108.71
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? · Yes0.1640.050$23.07−$52.59
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes0.1700.055$22.55−$47.15
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1200.030$12.20−$35.80
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes0.1400.040$8.00−$20.00
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1500.035$7.10−$22.90
Human moon landing in 2026? · No0.9430.991$5.25+$0.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-09 09:45Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?BUY0.164$8.35
10-09 09:45Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?BUY0.408$142.39
09-22 14:28Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of September 2026?BUY0.88$19.65
09-22 14:20Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?BUY0.31$124.00
09-16 13:56Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.12$10.80
09-11 08:09Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?BUY0.81$100.44
05-24 09:28US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?SELL0.9779108182$107.57
05-24 07:55Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.8460052857$177.66
05-16 09:58Will Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY0.14$28.00
05-16 09:52Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?BUY0.12$48.00
05-16 09:49Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?BUY0.17$51.00
05-16 09:43US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?BUY0.94$103.40
05-16 09:22Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?BUY0.17$18.70
05-11 13:23Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY0.23$23.00
05-11 13:18Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?BUY0.14$21.00