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0x684146eba82caaedccd439d75ce6dbac8b826e1f
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $62.7k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.555 | $2.2k | −$658.77 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.705 | $680.33 | −$91.67 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.275 | $100.63 | −$34.76 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$583.11at 0.827Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$424.00at 0.576US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$392.70at 0.490Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$345.86at 0.680Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$236.30at 0.907Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 01:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $772.00 |
| 09-13 01:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.40 |
| 09-11 15:22 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 09-11 15:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.82 | $2.8k |
| 09-11 02:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.37 | $661.40 |
| 08-20 19:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.1k |
| 08-15 10:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $258.16 |
| 08-14 04:42 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $377.22 |
| 08-12 02:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.61 | $117.11 |
| 08-09 13:14 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $25.00 |
| 08-05 17:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.576 | $576.00 |
| 07-31 13:36 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.972 | $4.86 |
| 07-31 13:34 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.0253541124 | $7.30 |
| 07-28 03:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.711 | $184.82 |
| 07-28 03:12 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $188.12 |