0x67c8d7Daaf87158B9BEBf2EE6934943A506B4841-1778064240710
0x67c8d7daaf87158b9bebf2ee6934943a506b4841
- Realised P&L
- $8.54
- Volume
- $93.29
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $3.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.080 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.060 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.037 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.47at 0.350Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$0.81at 0.861Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
- +$0.35at 0.897Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
- +$0.08at 0.840Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
- +$-1.03at 0.617Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 20:52 | Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.0453872712 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:52 | Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:50 | Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 18:54 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.2699998217 | $1.09 |
| 06-10 18:52 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.664 | $0.10 |
| 06-10 18:51 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.664 | $1.02 |
| 05-15 11:38 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | BUY | 0.4189999404 | $2.91 |
| 05-15 09:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | SELL | 0.91 | $1.09 |
| 05-15 09:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 05-11 13:23 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | BUY | 0.287999942 | $2.90 |
| 05-06 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8499994475 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |