0x663ddcb16230f649462d49ab4b54006f05375bca
- Realised P&L
- $-3.51
- Volume
- $86.08
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $13.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.855 | $3.05 | +$1.05 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.790 | 0.915 | $2.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.285 | $2.19 | +$0.19 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.705 | $2.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · No | 0.520 | 0.515 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.77at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$0.90at 0.690Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.74at 0.730Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$0.60at 0.770Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$0.45at 0.780Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 06:40 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 22:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699996951 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 14:20 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 06:19 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 22:19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 14:17 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 06:02 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 21:54 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 13:51 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 05:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 20:53 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 20:53 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 12:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:08 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 20:08 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |