15billionplus
0x6406102b2a67e987021169910c178ac8aa7dbc04
- Realised P&L
- $-9.2k
- Volume
- $1.41M
- Markets traded
- 1,515
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,515
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.01at 0.830Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$29.42at 0.790Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$19.83at 0.600Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$15.93at 0.870Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
- +$12.46at 0.692Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 12:17 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $34.03 |
| 09-25 11:37 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? | SELL | 0.46 | $69.00 |
| 09-25 10:09 | Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 09-25 09:23 | Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 09-25 08:47 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? | SELL | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 09-25 08:45 | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.92 |
| 09-25 08:06 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $79.56 |
| 09-25 07:13 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 09-25 05:15 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $84.24 |
| 09-25 04:51 | Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? | SELL | 0.76 | $4.56 |
| 09-25 04:26 | Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 09-25 04:09 | Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.84 | $36.12 |
| 09-25 03:55 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? | SELL | 0.81 | $0.63 |
| 09-25 03:55 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.40 |
| 09-25 03:55 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat? | SELL | 0.82 | $2.12 |