kohalacoastgabe
0x63e30d708e4f5ad12581730e5fbaf0e53646f341
- Realised P&L
- $-10.1k
- Volume
- $3.00M
- Markets traded
- 286
- Open portfolio
- $6.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded286
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.730Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.655France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
- +$2.4kat 0.587US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.760Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
- +$1.5kat 0.800Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 23:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2838367682 | $300.00 |
| 09-09 01:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.5498480455 | $500.00 |
| 09-08 19:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5898033986 | $300.00 |
| 08-19 03:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2599999996 | $500.00 |
| 08-19 03:53 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.4399999996 | $500.00 |
| 08-18 18:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2599999991 | $200.00 |
| 08-18 18:10 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0547325493 | $50.00 |
| 08-18 18:08 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3996003996 | $100.00 |
| 08-18 18:05 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.171449144 | $100.00 |
| 08-10 02:55 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | BUY | 0.2519743051 | $400.00 |
| 08-09 18:28 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.0787310961 | $142.38 |
| 08-09 18:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.06 | $171.93 |
| 08-09 18:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $218.18 |
| 08-01 03:15 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.3899610035 | $500.00 |
| 07-29 19:44 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.088999996 | $20.00 |