0x62dd4285b2b3cfa2fdbec7581395bf996731a0eb
0x62dd4285b2b3cfa2fdbec7581395bf996731a0eb
- Realised P&L
- $-0.35
- Volume
- $135.33
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $25.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.627 | 0.739 | $7.38 | +$1.11 |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.633 | 0.724 | $6.51 | +$0.81 |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.602 | 0.713 | $3.05 | +$0.47 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.260 | $2.60 | −$0.69 |
| CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 90.5% to 92%? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.480 | $2.40 | −$0.70 |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.265 | $1.85 | −$0.24 |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.276 | $1.38 | −$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.50at 0.500Idaho State Bengals vs. San Diego Toreros
- +$-0.03at 0.790Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$-0.10at 0.661Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?
- +$-0.10at 0.580Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?
- +$-0.13at 0.045Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 06:24 | Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $1.97 |
| 10-23 06:24 | Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $2.00 |
| 10-19 18:02 | Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%? | SELL | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 10-16 02:05 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.651 | $3.25 |
| 10-16 01:55 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.652 | $3.26 |
| 09-25 16:35 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.042 | $1.26 |
| 09-25 16:32 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.29 |