0x5E922c731EAb5081e0d62569f5c467dd63F36c63-1723477301763
0x5e922c731eab5081e0d62569f5c467dd63f36c63
- Realised P&L
- $-47.66
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $19.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.080 | $8.00 | +$2.00 |
| Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.060 | $6.36 | +$0.00 |
| Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.064 | $5.48 | −$0.52 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.164 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US government shutdown by October 1? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.01 |
| Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.42 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? · No | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.60 |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · No | 0.342 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.32at 0.330Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
- +$12.14at 0.430Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$1.11at 0.977Netanyahu out by 2025?
- +$0.95at 0.823Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$-8.00at 0.005Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 02:48 | Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.0700850428 | $6.00 |
| 10-09 02:46 | Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.36 |
| 10-09 02:45 | Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 07-27 18:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | BUY | 0.032 | $3.65 |
| 05-19 08:47 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.61 | $41.14 |
| 02-11 20:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4299999945 | $29.00 |
| 02-11 20:39 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999996 | $20.00 |
| 12-04 15:39 | Netanyahu out by 2025? | BUY | 0.9769999851 | $47.00 |
| 11-04 03:48 | Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? | SELL | 0.03 | $16.10 |
| 11-04 03:47 | Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | SELL | 0.901 | $10.95 |
| 10-10 02:46 | Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10? | BUY | 0.17 | $4.42 |
| 10-10 02:41 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.029 | $10.01 |
| 10-09 01:57 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 10-09 01:51 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 10-09 01:50 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $52.95 |