maybebrian
0x580a99479f35c7498e62a57b4a4a4a41682da236
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $82.9k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.270US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$538.26at 0.450US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$270.37at 0.270Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$266.30at 0.135Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
- +$248.44at 0.346Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 16:00 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1075268817 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 16:00 | Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999966 | $20.00 |
| 10-11 16:00 | Next James Bond announced by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $20.00 |
| 10-11 15:58 | Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 15:53 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0285894836 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 15:49 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0105616899 | $20.00 |
| 10-10 11:29 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October? | BUY | 0.3399999995 | $40.00 |
| 10-10 11:12 | Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999998 | $30.00 |
| 10-08 20:28 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1539999998 | $10.00 |
| 10-08 20:21 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $30.00 |
| 10-08 20:19 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $50.00 |
| 10-08 20:03 | Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $30.00 |
| 10-04 17:01 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $13.94 |
| 10-04 16:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 15:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.6172739868 | $53.46 |