0x56c0365435a84b1693683e69b2517680a0beff34
- Realised P&L
- $-153.32
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $106.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.125 | $33.42 | −$4.59 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.011 | $28.43 | −$12.10 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.041 | 0.022 | $24.15 | −$19.85 |
| Theo James announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.024 | $12.00 | −$8.00 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.234 | $8.55 | +$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.12at 0.813Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.60at 0.219Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-1.22at 0.103Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$-20.95at 0.155Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1?
- +$-33.46at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:17 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.1421675089 | $38.01 |
| 09-16 19:12 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0227180127 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 19:05 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.2189999962 | $8.00 |
| 09-16 19:03 | Theo James announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.0400156394 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 05:55 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0165331092 | $11.54 |
| 09-16 05:54 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.209 | $11.51 |
| 09-15 18:53 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2178184811 | $12.00 |
| 09-15 18:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.041 | $44.00 |
| 09-15 18:48 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0079665934 | $9.00 |
| 07-29 21:14 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.1 | $15.59 |
| 07-27 11:52 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.0979454733 | $15.27 |
| 07-27 11:50 | Will "72 Hours" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.1045467722 | $56.65 |
| 07-27 11:49 | Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1? | BUY | 0.1477507165 | $20.00 |
| 07-27 11:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.8 | $3.99 |
| 07-27 11:41 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.5072196556 | $32.50 |