0x54caba58365461dcb77dad9564ad52fbcc0f0729
0x54caba58365461dcb77dad9564ad52fbcc0f0729
- Realised P&L
- $59.54
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $89.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.165 | $26.61 | −$23.39 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.034 | $18.89 | −$31.10 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.145 | $11.48 | −$0.87 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.555 | $10.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.155 | $9.72 | −$2.63 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.660 | 0.705 | $6.32 | +$0.40 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.135 | $3.76 | −$0.70 |
| Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.051 | $2.49 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.05at 0.363Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$15.69at 0.472Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.14at 0.342Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$2.54at 0.565Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$1.20at 0.874Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 01:20 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.539999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-29 01:21 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.2431906214 | $6.38 |
| 10-28 02:40 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6599999978 | $5.92 |
| 10-28 02:37 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2419999859 | $3.95 |
| 10-28 02:36 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.51 | $8.91 |
| 10-28 02:27 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.233999998 | $2.32 |
| 10-28 02:24 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.53 | $9.26 |
| 09-17 02:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999657 | $3.21 |
| 09-15 07:13 | Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0119999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 01:52 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.46 |
| 09-04 04:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 01:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.97 |
| 08-03 22:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $8.69 |
| 08-03 09:01 | Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | BUY | 0.0599999814 | $2.96 |
| 07-27 05:15 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3399999857 | $11.88 |