Daniel-202
0x54b29a4673c1a7b0d0c22f00c0005924fdc5c0fd
- Realised P&L
- $-23.46
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $52.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.61at 0.130Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
- +$8.00at 0.240Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$0.95at 0.760Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$-0.01at 0.946Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$-0.02at 0.805Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 18:24 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.27 | $16.61 |
| 08-01 13:22 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 10:11 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | BUY | 0.1389999422 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 10:10 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0416509261 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 10:08 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on August 31? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 10:06 | Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? | BUY | 0.0369999877 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 10:05 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 10:04 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0029999985 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 10:04 | Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 10:03 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5199999827 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 09:59 | Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump? | BUY | 0.0094226299 | $1.72 |
| 07-31 09:57 | Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 09:57 | Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? | BUY | 0.0379999641 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 09:55 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 09:55 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |