Blind Chicken
0x542aae10712e812bd71d792861ec5a570aa8a81b
- Realised P&L
- $-24.3k
- Volume
- $22.31M
- Markets traded
- 870
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded870
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.6kat 0.938Will there be a US Government shutdown?
- +$13.8kat 0.075Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?
- +$11.0kat 0.020Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?
- +$7.9kat 0.049Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$6.5kat 0.079Government shutdown on Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 13:03 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.96 |
| 07-24 10:25 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.96 |
| 07-24 10:24 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.032 | $18.67 |
| 07-23 23:52 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.022 | $49.05 |
| 07-23 23:16 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.294 | $29.40 |
| 07-23 23:15 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.006 | $17.05 |
| 07-23 23:12 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.0349302326 | $15.02 |
| 07-23 23:12 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.0298052796 | $83.27 |
| 07-23 23:12 | Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.001 | $16.00 |
| 07-23 22:37 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0100241431 | $251.27 |
| 07-23 09:57 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.86 |
| 07-23 00:31 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.0078326996 | $13.31 |
| 07-22 22:39 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.007 | $3.73 |
| 07-22 22:36 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.006 | $6.91 |
| 07-22 14:43 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.005 | $3.63 |