Lucifergotlucky
0x53d5ba04d1ddaa7c9eb14d6e4b3896b15acbd88c
- Realised P&L
- $-234.86
- Volume
- $42.8k
- Markets traded
- 595
- Open portfolio
- $26.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded595
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.83at 0.233Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- +$26.81at 0.106Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?
- +$24.44at 0.450Ethereum Up or Down on January 18?
- +$20.18at 0.498Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
- +$17.14at 0.100Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 10:24 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.16 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.07 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.06 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.03 |
| 09-06 10:24 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.42 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.49 | $1.29 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.88 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.49 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.05 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.22 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.35 |
| 09-06 10:24 | Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.39 |
| 09-04 03:04 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.079 | $0.20 |
| 09-04 03:04 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.08 |
| 09-04 03:04 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $0.58 |