xiaojiren
0x537263fdfc15e4e967e63c0c783f22f549e74b1f
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $534.0k
- Markets traded
- 252
- Open portfolio
- $12.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded252
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.776Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.749Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.789Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.822Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
- +$1.8kat 0.861Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 01:06 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $623.01 |
| 10-10 01:41 | Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.779 | $135.76 |
| 10-08 11:00 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $172.45 |
| 10-04 15:52 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.0k |
| 10-02 13:53 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-02 08:14 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.19 |
| 10-01 16:19 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $890.00 |
| 10-01 16:18 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.8k |
| 10-01 06:41 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $831.64 |
| 10-01 06:39 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $1.0k |
| 10-01 06:27 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.6k |
| 10-01 05:10 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.7 | $218.40 |
| 09-30 06:35 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $270.00 |
| 09-30 01:36 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.908 | $648.62 |
| 09-28 23:41 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8889332793 | $100.00 |