RedWaffle5
0x5311e29f298fc0a3e128f76a9c49ecb713ff61ee
- Realised P&L
- $-180.43
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $93.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.70at 0.452Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
- +$16.90at 0.373Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
- +$12.34at 0.479Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
- +$9.70at 0.512Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
- +$6.33at 0.546Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 11:10 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 13:40 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999804 | $4.00 |
| 05-04 13:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.67 |
| 05-04 13:38 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.4 | $6.66 |
| 05-04 13:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.40 |
| 05-04 13:36 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.73 | $4.34 |
| 05-04 13:34 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999873 | $6.16 |
| 04-21 04:56 | Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.27 |
| 04-09 01:31 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 04-03 03:06 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.119999915 | $1.13 |
| 04-03 02:28 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999987 | $40.00 |
| 04-03 02:26 | Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | BUY | 0.0938271523 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 02:26 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SELL | 0.0437099504 | $44.72 |
| 04-02 00:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 21:53 | Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | BUY | 0.096046065 | $15.00 |