0x51BeD2f9b4C83C12f8a131Af66D7bD4373f12dF3-1761226031034
0x51bed2f9b4c83c12f8a131af66d7bd4373f12df3
- Realised P&L
- $726.32
- Volume
- $30.6k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $853.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? · No | 0.836 | 0.868 | $415.31 | +$15.31 |
| Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? · No | 0.930 | 0.955 | $334.24 | +$8.75 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · No | 0.704 | 0.732 | $103.91 | +$3.91 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET · Down | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET · Down | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$321.97at 0.791Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$195.00at 0.075No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
- +$76.77at 0.967Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
- +$76.37at 0.572Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?
- +$63.94at 0.316Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 13:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | SELL | 0.23 | $14.98 |
| 10-16 13:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | SELL | 0.16 | $10.42 |
| 10-16 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 13:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | SELL | 0.06 | $0.38 |
| 10-16 13:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | SELL | 0.4291306448 | $35.54 |
| 10-16 13:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 10-16 13:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 13:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3098613371 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 13:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 13:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | SELL | 0.72 | $26.66 |
| 10-16 13:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | BUY | 0.269999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 12:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | SELL | 0.01 | $1.11 |