0x50aaead71afa32f6d214882347c0381bab888988
0x50aaead71afa32f6d214882347c0381bab888988
- Realised P&L
- $-48.96
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $9.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · No | 0.976 | 0.985 | $3.03 | +$0.03 |
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.041 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.969 | 0.960 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.035 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.026 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.030 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.015 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.013 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.013 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.009 | $0.32 | −$0.68 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.032 | $0.32 | −$0.69 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.014 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.13at 0.329Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$0.98at 0.507Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
- +$0.98at 0.507ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro
- +$0.87at 0.537Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- +$0.76at 0.572Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 17:06 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9689997597 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 09:56 | Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 09:56 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-20? | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-12 11:34 | Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | BUY | 0.9879999974 | $3.00 |
| 08-12 11:33 | Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $3.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic | BUY | 0.0379999641 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? | BUY | 0.0479999551 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? | BUY | 0.0460210886 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0336300694 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:32 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.92 |
| 06-27 06:56 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 00:21 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0469999569 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 00:21 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? | BUY | 0.0423728814 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 00:21 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0629999444 | $1.00 |