WaterFloww
0x5040b5e76b45aeff6ccbb21b1aad0ccc2fa296cf
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $472.8k
- Markets traded
- 2,036
- Open portfolio
- $852.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,036
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$580.00at 0.330U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$497.20at 0.500Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$434.95at 0.015Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$328.40at 0.951US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$252.97at 0.075Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:59 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.52 | $23.40 |
| 09-18 11:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 09-18 11:44 | Will White House post 180-199 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $10.92 |
| 09-18 11:22 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.60 |
| 09-17 18:34 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $12.00 |
| 09-17 17:40 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 09-17 17:38 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 19? | SELL | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 17:38 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 18? | SELL | 0.61 | $9.15 |
| 09-17 17:38 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 18? | SELL | 0.62 | $3.10 |
| 09-17 17:31 | Will White House post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.29 |
| 09-17 15:33 | Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $10.50 |
| 09-17 15:26 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0042678287 | $0.43 |
| 09-17 15:01 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 19? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 14:49 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 18? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 14:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $17.50 |