Sunshine963
0x501867c49ae9b5ad93dc0109a0b473db1ae4398b
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $100.9k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.198Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
- +$401.95at 0.509US military action against Iran before July?
- +$265.00at 0.837Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$239.76at 0.176Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
- +$211.23at 0.745Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 18:30 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.154 | $30.80 |
| 09-24 18:29 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.154 | $30.80 |
| 06-05 10:47 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? | BUY | 0.237 | $23.70 |
| 06-04 22:15 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $43.20 |
| 06-04 19:22 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 05-28 12:39 | Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? | BUY | 0.51 | $15.30 |
| 05-24 11:33 | Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $65.59 |
| 05-16 18:51 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.719 | $21.57 |
| 05-11 22:45 | Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $21.54 |
| 05-11 22:30 | Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 05-11 22:14 | Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $12.00 |
| 05-11 22:05 | Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $29.58 |
| 05-11 13:07 | Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $30.69 |
| 05-11 13:04 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $24.94 |
| 05-11 12:48 | Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $30.80 |