hongolunar
0x4fe760b38e93ffc058d5946b0f13583f1659c08f
- Realised P&L
- $-13.69
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $30.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.64at 0.093Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?
- +$-1.00at 0.023Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?
- +$-2.08at 0.004Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$-2.10at 0.041Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by September 30, 2026?
- +$-3.00at 0.070Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 05:44 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.0389999999 | $10.23 |
| 10-11 05:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 05:08 | Any G20 leader out in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $12.00 |
| 10-11 00:41 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0409999998 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 02:13 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.0587623302 | $3.00 |
| 09-26 01:35 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | SELL | 0.983 | $32.76 |
| 09-22 03:55 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0229999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:51 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0122171511 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:48 | Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $3.00 |
| 09-21 06:43 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.0899999982 | $3.00 |
| 09-21 06:40 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0393174491 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 06:30 | Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown? | BUY | 0.1812638933 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 06:29 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.2779999976 | $3.00 |
| 09-21 06:16 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0041638734 | $2.00 |