alemania92
0x4fc2e8e7cd47ca07485d5b74d7d1adb88b2a05ee
- Realised P&L
- $-3.56
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 245
- Open portfolio
- $232.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded245
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.73at 0.150Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.183Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?
- +$2.45at 0.220Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?
- +$0.55at 0.649Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?
- +$0.50at 0.632Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 21:53 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 21:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 21:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 21:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:55 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.95 |
| 10-18 20:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.56 |
| 10-18 20:33 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.97 |
| 10-18 20:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.81 |
| 10-18 20:28 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.83 |
| 10-18 20:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.83 |
| 10-18 20:25 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.67 |
| 10-18 20:25 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.63 |