0x4e639df51d4893a3992a4b3309717b90882b6794
0x4e639df51d4893a3992a4b3309717b90882b6794
- Realised P&L
- $-5.98
- Volume
- $202.81
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $3.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.735 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $158 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.330 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.702 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.250 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$3.26at 0.380US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 21:32 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $158 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 01:56 | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 13:56 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:35 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:28 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7789998567 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 14:49 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:22 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:52 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:52 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:42 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |