knrad
0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645
- Realised P&L
- $40.4k
- Volume
- $3.44M
- Markets traded
- 1,168
- Open portfolio
- $97.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,168
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.1kat 0.704Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$6.4kat 0.513Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$5.0kat 0.074Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$4.4kat 0.046Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$4.2kat 0.030Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:33 | Will PSOE win 96-101 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.1295819 | $4.90 |
| 11-01 21:12 | Will PP win the most seats in Madrid in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.9764675115 | $356.76 |
| 11-01 21:12 | Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.4k |
| 11-01 18:49 | Will Junts win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.1177920303 | $11.20 |
| 11-01 18:48 | Will PNV win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.1613047891 | $49.11 |
| 11-01 18:47 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 18:33 | Will PP win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.6991032194 | $155.91 |
| 11-01 18:32 | Will PP win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.6202530601 | $278.19 |
| 11-01 18:26 | Will PSOE win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.8608960699 | $98.57 |
| 11-01 17:48 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9699866576 | $2.8k |
| 11-01 16:00 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8573962656 | $223.16 |
| 10-30 16:06 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $685.26 |
| 10-30 13:01 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? | SELL | 0.999 | $23.98 |
| 10-30 13:01 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? | SELL | 0.999 | $221.78 |
| 10-30 11:27 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | SELL | 0.307176167 | $135.69 |