moonrise-clump
0x48c4eb13fe07ea639df857bc82258ef5a47219e5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.03
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,067
- Open portfolio
- $596.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,067
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.83at 0.559Will Claude go down 11+ times in March?
- +$13.30at 0.693Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$13.25at 0.073Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
- +$11.29at 0.210US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
- +$11.13at 0.310Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 05:37 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.649999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 05:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 05:36 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6799999238 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 05:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 05:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 02:34 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9349999772 | $15.00 |
| 08-29 02:34 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 02:34 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $3.84 |
| 08-29 02:33 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.899999892 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 02:33 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8439998926 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 02:32 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999296 | $10.00 |
| 08-29 02:32 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 02:32 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6479999119 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 18:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.6699998727 | $5.00 |
| 08-15 18:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999989 | $15.00 |