PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

moonrise-clump

0x48c4eb13fe07ea639df857bc82258ef5a47219e5

Realised P&L
$-1.03
Volume
$7.2k
Markets traded
1,067
Open portfolio
$596.99

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,067
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9170.958$36.55+$1.55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.8260.885$21.42+$1.42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.8530.976$20.59+$2.59
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.6640.725$17.48+$1.48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.6880.935$13.38+$3.53
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.6950.715$12.35+$0.35
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? · No0.8800.900$10.23+$0.23
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9620.981$10.19+$0.19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.7160.994$9.71+$2.71
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes0.6300.979$9.32+$3.32
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · No0.8350.855$8.20+$0.20
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · No0.7250.951$7.87+$1.87
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? · No0.5510.865$7.85+$2.85
Weed rescheduled by December 31? · No0.5580.838$7.51+$2.51
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · No0.9580.977$7.14+$0.14

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 05:37Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?BUY0.649999974$5.00
09-09 05:37Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?BUY0.4899999824$5.00
09-09 05:36Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.6799999238$5.00
09-09 05:35Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.8899999858$5.00
09-09 05:35Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.7399999734$5.00
08-29 02:34Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9349999772$15.00
08-29 02:34Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.8299999967$5.00
08-29 02:34Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?SELL0.31$3.84
08-29 02:33Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.899999892$5.00
08-29 02:33Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8439998926$5.00
08-29 02:32Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?BUY0.8799999296$10.00
08-29 02:32Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?BUY0.2599998648$1.00
08-29 02:32Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?BUY0.6479999119$1.00
08-15 18:45Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.6699998727$5.00
08-15 18:45Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.8599999989$15.00