poliknomi
0x477d1ff1b2a3b61c67803e024b3c0140f81955a9
- Realised P&L
- $-224.89
- Volume
- $196.1k
- Markets traded
- 751
- Open portfolio
- $124.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded751
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$352.96at 0.202US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
- +$172.51at 0.033US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$163.15at 0.320Nothing Ever Happens: January
- +$139.94at 0.317US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
- +$116.61at 0.850 Steam Awards Parlay
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 14:38 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $4.77 |
| 06-25 10:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.066 | $2.51 |
| 06-25 10:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.066 | $2.99 |
| 06-25 10:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.064 | $1.28 |
| 06-25 09:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.058 | $0.60 |
| 06-25 07:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.051 | $7.90 |
| 06-25 07:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $15.36 |
| 06-05 14:48 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $15.98 |
| 06-02 12:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $6.00 |
| 06-02 12:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.21 | $7.35 |
| 06-02 09:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.21 | $7.35 |
| 06-02 09:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 16:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.038 | $1.52 |
| 06-01 15:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $15.60 |
| 06-01 15:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.18 | $10.80 |